Some time ago I wrote about Barack Obama, but at the time he was only candidate. However, as Obama will become president de facto, I believe it is necessary to deepen more about what the Brazilians (and possibly South American) can expect from the new president of the United States.

Since the Democrats “reinvented” themselves in the 50s and 60s, the fight for social inclusion became the flag of the party. In this sense, the victory of Obama is the consecration of the Democratic ideal.

Many Brazilians, and many others around the world as well, were excited with the populist slogan “Yes We Can” which was repeated to exhaustion during the campaign of 2008. When it was confirmed the victory of Obama, again, millions were happy because he is (and that even the most cynical of cynics could deny) a breakthrough in American democracy.

The economic crisis and the protectionism of the Democrats

However, at this time of economic crisis in a recession that takes care of much of the world, mainly United States, the main task of Obama will be to solve this problem.

So far, no big deal. But the problem is in how the new U.S. president solve this problem. During the campaign, it was clear that Obama is no different from much of the Democrats in regard to protectionism. So, probably protectionist economic measures will be taken to try to dispel the specter of economic recession.

By doing that, automatically other countries may feel free to do the same thing and it is precisely this which is one of my fears, because the consequences of that may be quite undesirable: more protectionism leads to more isolation, more insulation involves less dialogue and less dialogue implies a greater potential for future conflicts.

I am not one of those who believe that globalization is something that can solve all the problems of mankind and, in the other hand, I do not see globalization as a kind of demon because it brought more benefits than imagined.

Without globalization, the Internet probably would not be what it is today (considering of course that the Internet as we know it could exist without it). Without globalization, the democratic ideals that emerged in France would not have spread around the world. It’s always good to remember that globalization did not start after the end of the Cold War, it is something much older that began at the end of the Middle Ages (some scholars say that the globalization process may have begun before).

If Obama opts for protectionism, the trade disputes between countries will increase and, inevitably, new conflicts emerge in the long term.

The best option for finding a solution to the economic crisis is cooperation between countries, not limited only to those countries that form the G8, a group that excludes countries like China, India, Brazil, among others.

However, the above analysis only took into account the economy. Tomorrow I will be publishing the second part of that article in which I’ll examine the possible changes in geopolitical and military relations in South America and Brazil.