In the previous article I did a brief analysis of the choices that the Democrats will do to minimize the effects of economic crisis. To be more specific, I criticized the protectionism option, because it brings more problems than solutions in the long term.

In this article I want to show that South America and especially Brazilians expect Obama’s administration. And the best way so I can start my analysis is fairly summarized as the relations between Brazil and the United States were in the last 12 years with the aim to find clues to the future.

And the future of relations is the answer to this question: What a U.S. president must do to be classified as “good”?

Since he does not create even more barriers (such as agricultural subsidies) to Brazil, any U.S. president will be good, no matter whether Democrat or Republican. It would be an extremely difficult task point which U.S. president was generous with Brazil because the United States had not and do not have the slightest interest in strengthening Brazil (only in the nineteenth century the United States had interest in this). With that said, it is very easy to understand why the Clinton administration was one of the best in the last 50 years to Brazil.

During the period there was a “ideological” rapprochement between Clinton and Fernando Henrique Cardoso who along with Blair and others, developed the term “Third Way” (thought that defends a presence of government in the Economy that should be neither maximum, as in socialism, not least, as in liberalism). So it is possible to say that the United States gave strategic importance to Brazil in the late 90th.

Bill Clinton with Fernando Henrique Cardoso in the Planalto Palace, in October 1997

Of course, I also can not forget that that period was marked by a global economic prosperity, a fact that helped Brazil to recover from the economic crises that occurred in the late 90s. Only one detail that I can not fail to mention: although the Brazilian economy has suffered a lot during the crisis that occurred in the late 90s, none of these crises has been initiated here. The same applies to the current crisis.

Once George W. Bush has become president, things have not changed much, except for a allowance here and a surcharge there. What has changed in relations was the fact that neither Brazil nor the United States were so preoccupied with each other. The United States initiated 2 wars and, on the other hand, Brazil has further enhance the relations “South-South” - relations with countries like Argentina, South Africa, India, China, Iran, among many others.

Bush and Lula in

But not everything that goes to Brazil goes for other South American countries. Relations between Venezuela and the United States has deteriorated rapidly after the U.S. government supported a coup against Chavez. Argentina still blames the International Monetary Fund, controlled by the United States, for its financial collapse in 2001. Most recently the ambassador to Bolivia expelled U.S. accusing him of helping the scammers from Santa Cruz who almost started a civil war. I could cite more cases because the anti-Americanism in this region is on the rise. There are some exceptions, like Colombia, a country that has benefited from the “War on Drugs” from Bush.

As you can see, Obama will have to deal with the legacy that Bush has left in this region. But will he be able to establish a new stage in relations between the countries of South America and the United States?

So far the answer is no.

If Obama wants to show that he really is willing to “change”, one of his first tasks will be ending the embargo on Cuba. That would be a change in international relations, because would indeed stablish new forms of relations between countries.

If don’t, more and more Latin Americans can be sure that Obama does not represent any change, but the continuation of a policy that has already lasted 50 years.